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    InvestorsObserver
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    Michael Fowlkes
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    J.M. Smucker reports Q2 numbers November 28

    Michael Fowlkes

    11/24/2018 12:53 PM

    What's Happening

    J.M. Smucker (SJM) reports its fiscal second-quarter results November 28. The company will report its numbers before the market open with the consensus calling for earnings of $2.35 per share. During the same period last year the company earned $2.02.

    Technical Analysis

    SJM was recently trading at $109.99 down $23.39 from its 12-month high and $13.86 above its 12-month low. InvestorsObserver’s Stock Score Report gives SJM a 81 long-term technical score and a 78 short-term technical score. The stock has recent support above $105 and recent resistance below $115. Of the 11 analysts who cover the stock 1 rate it Strong Buy, 0 rate it Buy, 9 rate it Hold, 0 rate it Sell, and 1 rate it Strong Sell, SJM gets a score of 60 from InvestorsObserver’s Stock Score Report.

    Analyst's Thoughts

    SJM has missed estimates on the top and bottom line in each of its last two quarterly reports. The street does expect to see that streak end this quarter with a whisper number of $2.37 suggesting a two cents earnings beat. SJM has traded in a fairly tight sideways trend over the last six months, but remains in the lower end of its 52-week range as investors remain cautious given the recent misses. Earnings growth has slowed considerably. After rising 10% per annum over the last five years analysts expects profits to rise just 4% this year, and by a modest 1% next year. Looking at a longer horizon, profits are forecast to rise at an annual rate of 10.5% over the next five years, but traders will likely remain bearish until the company is able to start showing stronger growth numbers. SJM has a very low valuation, with a forward P/E of just 12.5, so the stock probably has little downside risk barring a huge earnings miss. From a valuation perspective the stock looks OK, but shareholders will need to be patient to see any meaningful rise in their investments. Analysts have a $110.30 average price target on the stock.

    Stock Only Trade

    If you're looking to establish a long stock position in SJM consider buying the stock under $110. Sell if it falls below $101 or take profits if it gets to $127.

    Bullish Trade

    If you want a bullish hedged trade on the stock, consider a 1/18/19 90/95 bull-put credit spread for a $0.30 credit. That's a potential 6.4% return (41.6% annualized*) and the stock would have to fall 13.9% to cause a problem.

    Bearish Trade

    If you want to take a bearish stance on the stock at this time, consider an 1/18/19 125/130 bear-call credit spread for a $0.35 credit. That's a potential 7.5% return (49% annualized*) and the stock would have to rise 13.9% to cause a problem.

    Covered Call Trade

    If you like the stock but wish to lower your cost basis on a new position, you may want to consider a 1/18/19 $110 covered call. Buy SJM shares (typically 100 shares, scale as appropriate), while selling the 1/18/19 $110 call for a debit of $104.89, per share. The trade has a target assigned return of 4.9%, and a target annualized return of 32% (for comparison purposes only).

     

     

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  • 按照马克思的原义,共产主义是"以每一个个人的全面而自由的发展为基本原则的社会形式"。这一基本原则的实现,涉及社会政治、经济、文化等方方面面。离开这一基本原则侈谈 2019-02-15
  • 全国森林特色小镇建设开始申报 2019-01-30
  • 武警重庆总队举行干部退役仪式 2019-01-30
  • 犬伤人,有人伤人厉害吗 2019-01-28
  • 山西出版界融媒体的探索者 2019-01-28
  • 更别忘了马克思对共产主义设定的另一个条件:劳动不再是谋生的手段。这一点哈儿是怎么也不能理解的,哈儿嘛,夏虫不可语冰嘛。 2019-01-18
  • 李睿的专栏作者中国国家地理网 2019-01-17
  • 智媒云图(Intell Vision):图书馆“书童” 2019-01-15
  • 毕业证需要一张纸来证明真假,妥吗 2019-01-15
  • 阶级是过去私有制社会的产物,在现代公有制和私有制并存的社会主义社会,阶级已不复存,存在的是阶层。 2019-01-09
  • 中国经济稳中向好的发展态势没有变 2019-01-09
  • 简氏:中国暗剑无人机再曝光 或是超音速空优战机 2018-12-30
  • 浙江省新闻道德委员会举报中心投诉电话、网络安全举报电话 2018-12-30
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